Betting on Elections: How Kalshi and Polymarket Turned the Midterms Into a Market
Betting on elections used to be something Americans did offshore or with friends. Now it's an app on your phone. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let you buy contracts on who wins a Senate seat, which party takes the House or what the turnout will be. For the 2026 midterms, more than $1.4 billion had been traded on these markets by late October, according to a CNN analysis, and Kalshi was even advertising its odds on billboards in New York. If you've been putting money on races, here's how it works and how to tell if it's become a problem.
How election betting works
You buy a "yes" or "no" contract on an outcome, priced between 0 and 100 cents. If you're right, each contract pays $1; if you're wrong, you lose what you paid. The price works like the market's odds. It feels like analysis, but you're paying for a chance at a payout, which is betting.
Kalshi offers election markets after winning a legal fight with the federal regulator, the CFTC, in 2024. Polymarket built its following on election markets and relaunched a regulated US app in 2025.
Why it's easy to get hooked
- It feels smart. Following polls makes it feel like research, not gambling.
- It's emotional. Betting on your own side mixes money with identity, which makes it hard to stop.
- There's always another race. House seats, Senate seats, governors, then the next election cycle.
- Prices move all day, so you check constantly and trade on every poll or headline.
Signs it's become a problem
You're betting more to win back losses, checking the markets compulsively, hiding it, or using money you need for other things.
How to stop
- Use the platform's limits or self-exclusion.
- Delete the apps and turn off alerts.
- Ask your bank to block gambling transactions, and move crypto out of any wallet you bet from.
- Add up deposits minus withdrawals.
- See our guide to Kalshi and Polymarket for more.
If it's hard to stop, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential support.
Cake, an iOS app in development, gives the money somewhere better to go: put something you actually want on a cake sized by its price, $5 a slice, and every bet you skip fills slices while the money adds up in a virtual jar.
Common questions
Is betting on elections legal in the US?
Through federally regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, yes in most states, though some states are challenging these markets in court.
How much was bet on the 2026 midterms?
More than $1.4 billion had been traded on prediction markets for the midterms by late October 2026, according to CNN.
Is election betting gambling?
Prediction markets call it trading, but paying for a chance at a payout on an outcome works like betting and carries the same risks.